In case you have no idea what the whole mystery of the horseshoe is all about. This is a pocket item offered as a reward for epic quest Volume 3, Book 2, Chapter 4 (approximately level 60). This item has no stats and only one description, “Some people believe such a shoe brings good fortune.”.
It has been something LOTRO players have been curious about ever since. Should we keep space for it in the ever overflowing vault? Does it actually help or are we being made to look silly believing in superstitious items like a lucky horseshoe?
Sapience has reached his goal and so we now have a bit of insight into Erebrandir’s Horseshoe:
It’s time to pull the veil back just a bit on the mysterious Erebrandir’s horseshoe and what it does.
For starters, it does do something. Some may think it doesn’t, but it does! In fact, it does more now than when it was first introduced. This is why we’ve kept its effects a closely guarded secret. As time goes on, it grows more powerful! So when should you be using it? Some portions of the Epic story and certain festival events benefit from having this lucky horseshoe. In fact, the winter festival would be a good time to dust it off!
To be perfectly honest, there’s not a lot here that I didn’t already know.
We’ve been told in the past that the horseshoe does in fact do something. MadeofLions commented on the forums back in 2010 that the horseshoe was tested [source] and that it has a in-game effect [source].
The NPCs in the recent Treasure Hunt event gave us a clue that we should be using our horseshoes. It makes sense that this would be helpful for other such events as well.
Regardless of all that it is more solid information we’ve seen on this silly item in years.
What Do We Know
So let’s break down the what we know. The horseshoe:
- Was introduced with Volume 3
- Benefits portions of the Epic Story
- Benefits certain festival events
- Increases in power with time
- increases luck somehow
I’m going to start out with some assumptions of my own. Feel free to place your arguments to refine or debunk these assumptions in the comments (but do it nicely, eh?).
- It does not increase your combat abilities at all given that festivals are non-combat events.
- Increases in power over time means that whatever percentage of luck it is giving you increases as you level.
- Since it deals with luck, it helps with random events where the results could differ from time to time.
- We assume this is really not as cool and valuable as Turbine wants us to think that it is.
Some have suggested that because it is granted so late in the epic story that it will only effect epic content from there on but I’m not so certain this is true. For one, epic stories can be done out of order. Also festival quests have level requirements of 10 or under so I think it’s safe to say it’s not level locked into when it operates. However it is a theory and not a bad one, but just one I’m choosing not to make one of my assumptions.
Closer Look at Festivals
I’ve done festivals way more frequently than I have done the epic story lines so my guesses here will be focused on what I know from festivals. Let’s work together on this and help me pin-point the connection between these two events.
The pattern that I am seeing is that it helps with the quality of loot drops or random selections. It will not make the special item you want appear but it can increase your chances of your loot role being good enough so it could appear.
Festival events this logic could be used:
- Anniversary Festival envelope drops (chance at Lossoth or Warden steed)
- Spring festival flower collection (chance to pick up flowers not from that region) or gift box rewards (chance at Jester Steed)
- Summer festival fishing collection (chance to pick up special fish from that fishing hole)
- Farmer’s Fair Egg collection (can sometimes pick up additional colored egg or the rarer golden egg); Fish quests that require luck such as “Big Fish, Little Fish” or “Fishy, Very Fishy”.
- Treasure Hunt is pretty much all luck. My guess is that helps increase the chance of your dig site being a higher than average cache size (meaning that it would have a greater chance of being not small) as well as chance to increase the quality of items from cache boxes (increasing chance of mounts).
- Fall Festival with the “Poorly hidden chest” (chance at skeleton steed) or the pumpkin/apple/geode/scroll quest where you select a random sized item worth tokens.
- Yule/Winter festival being selected in the random theater draw or picking up extra perfect snowballs in the snowball fight.
Where Do the Epics Fit In?
How this ties in with portions of the epic is where I’m uncertain and perhaps you have better ideas than I.
There are collection quests in epics such as pick up Treasure Coffers but how is this different than any of the 8 ba-billion other “go pick up orc poo and bring it to me” type quests? I sincerely hope that is not the function of the horseshoe in the epics.
Are there any epic quests that have any random rewards or anything that could fit into this sort of scenario – mostly with increasing luck of a random outcome (not necessarily loot)?
So I’ve done what I could to think of luck based festival events and all of them have at least something that fits the bill.
What are your theories?